Roach: ‘U.S. Homes Should Fall 30 Percent’

Friday, Jan. 11, 2008 11:19 a.m. EST Voracious, spendthrift consumers in the United States have driven the global economy out of balance, and only a massive repricing of U.S assets – including up to a 30 percent decline in home values – can fix it.

That’s the view of Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, writing in the Financial Times this week.

"America’s current account deficit is due more to bubbles in asset prices than to a misaligned dollar,” Roach wrote in an editorial. "A resolution will require more of a correction in asset prices than a further depreciation of the dollar.”

A weakening U.S. dollar might help, but it won’t solve the real problem – a huge trade imbalance financed by a huge spending binge by American consumers.

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